IAB lifts its 2026 US ad spend forecast to 12.3 percent growth

The IAB raised its 2026 forecast for United States ad spend to 12.3 percent growth on 10 September. In January the same study pointed to 9.5 percent. The revision is worth 2.8 percentage points.

Social at 16.5 percent and CTV at 15.6 percent lead the revision

Social media is now expected to grow 16.5 percent this year, against 14.6 percent in January. Connected TV, meaning television sets plugged into the internet, moves from 13.8 to 15.6 percent. Commerce media, the ad space sold by shops and marketplaces, goes from 12.1 to 13.6 percent.

Not everything moved up. Paid search slips from 8.2 to 8.1 percent, digital video outside CTV from 9.6 to 9.4 percent, and digital out-of-home from 7.4 to 7.0 percent. Podcasts edge up to 8.7 percent. The pattern matches where big advertisers say their money goes: Campbell’s sends most of its working media budget to social and creators.

Winter Olympics and the World Cup lifted the first half

The IAB puts the change down to a strong first half, with the Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup drawing audiences, and to easing worries about the economy. David Cohen, the IAB chief executive, said “the first half was strong, major live events delivered”. The forecast rests on a survey of more than 200 ad investment decision-makers at brands and agencies.

WPP Media put United States growth at 11.9 percent in its midyear report. The two studies use different methods and cover slightly different ground, so the gap between them is small.

Linear TV is the only channel still shrinking, at 1.5 percent

Traditional broadcast and cable television is the one line in the survey with a minus sign. It is set to fall 1.5 percent, a shade better than the 1.7 percent drop expected in January. Every other channel in the study grows, which is unusual in a year with this much talk about budget pressure.

That matters for anyone planning reach. A channel that shrinks slowly still carries a large audience, and its prices tend to soften while rivals fill up. Recent work on how people actually spend time with commercial media points the same way.

Customer acquisition jumps nine points to 63 percent

Asked what their media money is meant to do, 63 percent of buyers named winning new customers, nine points more than in January. Brand equity was named by 43 percent, up six points. Repeat purchases stayed near 24 percent.

The shift towards acquisition usually follows shoppers who are willing to switch brands over price. Forecasts for a trillion-dollar United States holiday season lean on the same behaviour. For a planner, the practical read is that performance budgets will be easier to defend this autumn than brand budgets, and that social and connected TV are where the extra money is already going.