Adobe: AI traffic to US shops will grow 130% this holiday season. Sales to hit $275bn

Adobe expects US shoppers to spend $275.1 billion online between 1 November and 31 December 2026, up 6.7% on last year. Its 2026 US holiday forecast also predicts that visits to retail sites from generative AI tools will grow 130% year on year.

Adobe sees AI visitors buying more often than others

Adobe Digital Insights based the forecast on more than one trillion visits to US retail websites, 100 million products in 18 categories and a survey of 5,000 consumers in September. On Thanksgiving, AI referrals are expected to rise 141%.

The forecast also looks at how those visitors behave. In August 2026, traffic from AI tools converted 48% better than other traffic. It also brought 43% more revenue per visit.

Cyber Week brings $47.5bn and Cyber Monday $15.1bn

Adobe expects $47.5 billion of online spending during Cyber Week, up 7.4%. Cyber Monday alone should bring $15.1 billion, and Black Friday $12.9 billion. Across the whole fourth quarter, from October to December, Adobe forecasts $370.9 billion.

Phones will carry 57.4% of holiday purchases, up from 56.4% in 2025. Buy now, pay later should reach $21.3 billion over the season. Adobe puts the peak discount at around 30% during Cyber Week.

Bain and Mastercard publish similar holiday signals

The forecast lines up with other holiday numbers. Bain expects a $1 trillion US holiday season across all channels. Card networks are preparing as well: Mastercard expects 300 million people to shop through AI agents by 2030.

For a retailer, the useful check is in its own analytics: how many sessions came from ChatGPT, Gemini or Perplexity in September, and how they converted. If that line is already near Adobe’s 48% gap, it deserves its own budget line before 1 November.